Brecon and Radnorshire... and Curtice

This morning (August 2nd) on BBC’s Today programme, John Curtice, a sort of beardless Professor Branestawm of political results, pronounced that there were three things to ‘take away’ from the B & R by-election result and then proceeded to ignore the most important point and mis-represent another.

Prof. Curtice is best known for predicting the outcomes of elections based on the results of the actual election by means of the exit polls. I reckon that, with enough clipboards and a spreadsheet, I could do that and give a better interpretation of the results.

To end the suspense, I can tell you that the most important conclusion to be drawn from the by election is that another EU referendum would be a dangerous waste of time because the total ‘remain’ votes (LD and including the Labour vote for good luck) was 48.7% and the ‘leave’ (Tory, Brexit and UKIP) vote was 50.3%.

The misinterpretation, (if, indeed that is what it was rather than a sneaky bit of propaganda - you can’t trust anyone these days!), was Curtice’s observation that Labour are in electoral trouble. It’s true that, superficially, it was a poor result but it is very arguable that Labour voters (-12.4%) voted LD(+14.3%) to make damn sure that the Tory fraudster didn’t win. The very sad possibility is that actual LD voters would be less honourable in Labour/Tory marginals in any forthcoming elections.

Beardless Branestawm’s reasonable prediction of a hung parliament is, sadly, a very real possibility. The trouble is that LDs will be only too prepared to put power and party first and pair up with the Tories again under some egregious pretence about, ironically, it being for the ‘good of the country’. — Bob, your uncle

John Curtice/Beardless Branestawm - photo courtesy of Sarah Lee/The Guardian